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I'd agree that while the odds do state that more often than not in the Philippines, that the underlying motivation is primal, it's not necessarily correct to assume that in Tony's case that it is his motivation.  It's also technically possible that the girl could be an excuse and that actually he is fascinated by danger, or by questioning conventional wisdom.

As for Mindanao specifically, Manfred did find this cool 2009 map of danger zones classified by the insurance industry.  If you really want to test the shadow side of human nature, how about Somalia?  For me personally I've only been once to Dipolog and the nearby countryside, never ventured further than that.  Never felt unsafe, and probably it's a fairly safe place in that immediate vicinity.  My suspicion based on what I've heard indirectly is that Mindanao, even its worst parts, are not worse than walking into the worst part of L.A. or Detroit.  However, I sure would not walk into the worst parts of either of those places, having learned my "give my your wallet" lesson in the humble metropolis of Little Rock, Arkansas on a hippie road trip in 1995 and had multiple reminders since then about human nature.

My gut feeling is that you'd have less than 10% risk of death in a week in Cotabato.  I know how much I enjoyed the part of my vacation last time it touched on one of the red zones (a train ride through the Muslim zone in south Thailand) - in short, I still feel nervous about it.  But it does make for interesting reading, so if you do go, we'll be sure to follow along vicariously if you'll allow us.